What is a Conspiracy?
A conspiracy theory is simply an explanation for something in public life that you do not happen to like, and/or for which you find the public explanation unlikely. Conspiracy theories come from the cognitive dissonance that arises when official explanations or denials are insufficient; when they ignore the wider context, or run contrary to observed truths.
The term ‘conspiracy theory’ is used as a pejorative term, often to stifle dissent or discredit individuals. ‘Conspiracy’ is used to create ‘man of straw’ arguments by noting that some conspiracy ideas are clearly deranged, and then implying that quality investigative journalism and alternative media generally cannot be trusted because they do not accept official explanations at face value.
Conspiracy theories are often ‘anti-establishment’ such as the ongoing imbroglio around the events of 9/11, but conspiracy theories are also used by the establishment as a form of propaganda. The ongoing Western media narrative about President Putin is an example of the latter. According to this theory, Putin is conspiring to invade Eastern and perhaps Western Europe, has a secret personal fortune, is influencing the US election, is co-opting Europe with a vast network of secretly funded NGO’s, is acting outside international legal frameworks, is a dictator, and is about to lead a ‘revanchist’ Russia on some sort of anti-Western crusade. None of this has any basis in reality.
The fact is, there are numerous examples of actual historical conspiracies. These include for example, ‘Operation XX’ by British agents in World War II, Operation Mocking Bird by the CIA, the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, the FBI Forensic Scandal, the Iran Contra Affair, and the NSA PRISM Program. In the second Gulf War the “evidence was being fixed around the policy” and in the first Gulf War the story about babies being pulled from humidicribs was later found to be fabricated. As established in the international lessons, the war against Libya was a conspiracy from the start.
Conspiracy is a basic tool in both domestic policy and international relations. Indeed, it is not possible to manipulate a target group/country to act contrary to their interests without a covert strategy or the use of covert networks. That in essence, is the art of conspiracy. It is in part what intelligence and defence agencies are paid hundreds of millions of dollars to do.
In this context there are conspiracy theories and conspiracy facts. The one usually comes before the other, but healthy skepticism should be applied until the matter is proven. Ironically, wikileaks has proven many things true what would otherwise be easily dismissed as ‘conspiracy’.
Assessing Theories
A realistic theory is able to make real world predictions about defined actions by defined groups of people that can be observed. Observations must be systematic over time. A theory will be established as probable if it can make accurate predictions. It will be proven if documentary evidence exists to support it.
For example, Zionists have a long term strategy to create a ‘greater Israel’ in the Middle East. Technically this is a conspiracy theory. As a theory it is predictive, at least partly documented, and is based on systemic observation. It can both explain and to some extent predict events in Palestine and Syria. It is therefore a realistic theory.
From 2005 to 2008 I read detailed predictions of a US economic melt-down based on housing and dollar inflation. These were dismissed by mainstream economists and media as conspiratorial rantings. The articles I read were wrong about the proximate cause – unhealthy loan practices, but right about the fundamentals. They were approximately accurate about the timing, and underestimated the carnage.
An unrealistic theory on the other hand fails to reason from cause to effect, is not predictive, and is not based in credible real world evidence. So for example, the fact that the Rothschild’s are a wealthy and influential banking family does not mean that they are part of a secret network that rules the world. Similarly, the fact that an unelected cabal of central bankers meeting in Switzerland largely sets reserve interest rates for the world’s banks, does not mean that these same people dictate social or economic policy.
For a real world example of investigative journalism and conspiracy you can listen to award winning Journalist Seymour Hersh give his thoughts on the DNC email leak, the Seth Richards murder, and the ‘Russian Hacking’ psychops (contains profanity).
