Introduction

In this course we will consider four major trends that are currently impacting the world order. They are:

  1. The pursuit by the United States of America for full spectrum dominance and global hegemony
  2. The pursuit by China of secure global resources
  3. Russia’s pursuit of national survival and its return to traditional values
  4. The global corporatist agenda to reshape the world for capital

Basic Tools – Our Method

In order to do this, we need a method, or as academics call it, a methodology. Our method is this:

  1. Look for systemic behaviours and repeating patterns on the part of the key players
  2. Ask ‘who benefits and who loses from these behaviours?’
  3. Seek sources close to events
  4. Ask what perspectives are not being shared
  5. Make a conclusion
  6. Test our conclusions and any counter narrative by asking ‘If this is true what would we expect to see, and do we see it?’

Later we will apply this method to answering the question: “Is there a single goal that directs foreign interventions by the United States of America; and if there is a single goal, what is?”

I hope by the end of this segment that you will have seen the connections and interplay between all of these trends.

Speaking of sources, we have already established in this course that the mainstream media in the West, and in authoritarian states like China, presents a systemically distorted view of reality. Only a narrow range of perspectives are given.

For example, if you read regular media you could be forgiven for thinking that Putin is a tyrant rather than the democratically elected president of a democratic country.[1] Consider Iran. Australia is a Western world country of 23 million people with a 200 year history. It has a privately owned national newspaper The Australian. Iran is an ancient civilisation dating from Biblical times, and a sophisticated country of 70 million people. When was the last time The Australian published an Iranian perspective on anything to do with Iran? Much of the Western World gets a predominantly North American establishment perspective on international events. However, 95 per cent of the world’s population do not live in North America.

Your best sources therefore are:

  1. Those closest to the action;
  2. Independent subject matter experts; and
  3. Those who are themselves being impacted by the events.

Outlines and Definitions

In order to put these trends in context we need to set out some basic facts about the key players.

What is the United States?

The United States is a former British colony which gained independence following an armed insurgency and then became a loose confederation of States. The Southern States were colonised following a brutal civil war and forced to become part of the Union. The United States is now arguably the world’s most powerful country and is one of the most technologically advanced. It has a population of approximately 324 million people of whom around 11 million are illegal migrants.[2] The US is deeply, institutionally corrupt. There is severe wealth inequality.[3] On any given day approximately 3.5 million are homeless[4] and nearly 50 million face ‘food insecurity’.[5] The US has the highest rate of murders of citizens by police of any country[6] and the highest rate of incarceration outside of North Korea.[7] Economic and political power are highly concentrated.[8]

The United States is a democracy with a free press, two houses of parliament and an executive branch vested in the President. The Office of President has significant executive powers and in the last 25 years has waged continual war without Congressional approval. The United States spends as much on its military as the rest of the world’s military spending combined. The US has a vast global military network including between 700 and 1000 military bases,[9] and 11 naval aircraft carrier battle groups with another aircraft carrier under construction. America’s defence posture is highly expansionist.

What is the Russian Federation?

Russia is a thousand year old civilisation based on Byzantine Christianity, better known as Orthodox Christianity. Historically Russia was an empire ruled by the Tsars but in the early 20th century succumbed to Communism. Russia became the Soviet Union or the USSR. Russia has been invaded repeatedly throughout its history but has never initiated an invasion of Western Europe. The Soviet Union was invaded by the Third Reich in World War II. German forces fought their way to Moscow but were ultimately defeated. Approximately 27 million Russians died, most of them civilians. The Soviet Union destroyed over 250 German military divisions. In contrast Anglo forces destroyed approximately fifty divisions. Russia can therefore lay legitimate claim to winning the War in Europe. Following the War, the USSR invaded and occupied Eastern Europe to create a buffer against the Western powers.

The Russian and Eastern European peoples rejected Communism in the early 1990’s and overthrew the USSR in perhaps the biggest and least violent revolution in history. Rapid privatisation followed leading to crushing poverty, chronic corruption and severe concentration of wealth. However, in the last 15 years the Russian Federation has experienced rapid economic growth due to the nationalisation of its key energy industries, and firm leadership by President Putin.

Russia is a democratic nation of approximately150 million people. It has a free press. It has a Parliament comprising two houses. There is a lower house called the ‘Duma’ and an upper house called the Federation Council. The President is directly elected and is the head of State. The President has the powers provided for in the constitution. The Prime minister is the head of the executive branch. The Prime minister is appointed by the President but this appointment must be ratified by the Duma. Russia has a number of regional parliaments representing the populations of the different regions of the federation. Russia has high levels of corruption.[10]  Economic and political power are highly concentrated.

In the 1990’s Russia disarmed the former USSR and sought re-approachment with the West in exchange for the promise that NATO would not move “One inch East”.[11] This promise was betrayed and NATO expanded to the Russian border. In response Russia has undertaken a deep military modernisation targeted towards national self-defence. Russia is a regional power with a handful of foreign bases, no aircraft carriers[12], and very little capacity to project military force beyond its borders. Russian military spending is variously estimated to be approximately one seventh to one tenth of the US. Russia’s defence posture geared to national defence rather than force projection or global conquest.

What is NATO?

NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. NATO was established as a military alliance to counter the USSR in Europe during the Cold War. NATO essentially is the US military in Europe with Western European militaries helping out around the edges. With the dissolution of the USSR, NATO had no reason to continue. Nevertheless, NATO has expanded into Eastern Europe and to Russia’s borders.

What is the EU?

The European Union is a trade, currency and regulatory union among European nations. It began as a Northern European initiative and has now expanded, along with NATO, into Eastern Europe. The EU was established as an economic and regulatory counter to the United States, and there is frequent conflict with the US in the realm of trade and regulation. The war in Syria has substantially undermined the EU on multiple levels.

What is China?

China is the ‘middle kingdom’ of antiquity in modern guise. China has never experienced democracy and for most of its long history has been ruled by emperors, and for centuries has been governed by a Confucian ruling class. The modern one party State essentially replicates the traditional political structure in China. China’s experience of colonialism was traumatic and China is determined never again to be conquered by a foreign power. With 1.3 billion mouths to feed, China is on a quest for global resources of food, water and minerals. China is building a modern navy with global reach to protect its sea lanes. Its military spending is significant but unknown. Its military posture is largely defensive but China has developed regional offensive capabilities.

In that context let’s consider our first topic.

 

[1] Reflect on Putin’s response here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KHCNk9BYy4

[2] See further https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigrant_population_of_the_United_States

[3] See further: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90

[4] As will all statistics it depends on what you are counting. On any given night over 600,000 Americans sleep on the streets but there are many other forms of homelessness leading to the higher estimates.

[5] See further: http://frac.org/reports-and-resources/hunger-and-poverty/

[6] See further: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/09/the-counted-police-killings-us-vs-other-countries

[7] See further: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate

[8] See for example here: https://www.opensecrets.org/

[9] See further http://time.com/4075458/afghanistan-drawdown-obama-troops/

[10] See for example: http://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/russia

[11] This was a promise made to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev by US Secretary of State James Bakter III in return for the Soviets allowing the re-unification of Germany.

his promise was accepted in good faith but was abandoned under the first Clinton Presidency. See further here: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51154

[12] Russia has one putative aircraft carrier but technically it is a guided missile carrier. It is able to launch helicopters and a handful of aircraft in support of expeditionary forces but does not qualify as an ‘aircraft carrier’ in the sense that the USN has them.